This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 51% to break even | 7%–46% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 51% to break even | 13%–48% | 24 points shortwon 27%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 5 of 1533%needs 51% to break even | 17%–54% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Every game |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 7 | -22.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsTez Johnson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsTez Johnson |
| 19%–51% |
| 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 64 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 8 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 49 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | -1 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 5 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 6 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 42 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 43 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 58 | +28.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 45 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 59 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 8 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -29.5 | Lost |
| -137at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 58% to break even |
| -11.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -175at Kalshi |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 64% to break even |
| -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsTez Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETEgbuka questionable: next up at WR | +149at Polymarket | 5 of 15· last season33%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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