This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 8.8kicking points |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 7.3kicking points |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 6.5kicking points |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 8.8kicking points |
| Last season | 5 of 1828%needs 53% to break even | 14%–47% | 25 points shortwon 28%, needs 53% | 5.9kicking points |
| Every game | 8 of 2335%needs 53% to break even | 21%–52% | 18 points shortwon 35%, needs 53% | 6.5kicking points |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 11 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Kicking points in each game against over 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Kicking points | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 12 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 12 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 12 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 kicking pointsRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Fanatics | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 49% to break even3 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 7.5 kicking pointsRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetMGM | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 field goals madeRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +115at DraftKings | 12 of 18· last season67%needs 47% to break even6 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -11.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 extra points madeRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -167at DraftKings | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 63% to break even5 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -13.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 extra points madeRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even6 of 11 at home | -23.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 field goals madeRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -145at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 59% to break even5 of 11 at home | -27.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.