This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 59% to break even | 44%–95% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% | 2.2field goals made |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 59% to break even | 27%–73% | 9 points shortwon 50%, needs 59% | 1.7field goals made |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 59% to break even | 22%–61% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% | 1.5field goals made |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 59% to break even | 44%–95% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% | 2.2field goals made |
| Last season |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 11 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Field goals made in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Field goals made | Beat 1.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 18%–53% |
| 26 points shortwon 33%, needs 59% |
| 1.4field goals made |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 59% to break even | 28%–60% | 16 points shortwon 43%, needs 59% | 1.6field goals made |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| +115at DraftKings |
| 12 of 18· last season67%needs 47% to break even6 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -111at BetMGM |
| 13 of 18· last season72%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 kicking pointsRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -140at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 58% to break even8 of 11 at home | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 extra points madeRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -167at DraftKings | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 63% to break even5 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 kicking pointsRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Fanatics | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 49% to break even3 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 extra points madeRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even6 of 11 at home | -23.9Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 kicking pointsRyan Fitzgerald · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even5 of 11 at home | -28.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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