This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 49% to break even | 14%–73% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% | 8.8kicking points |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 49% to break even | 13%–56% | 19 points shortwon 30%, needs 49% | 8.4kicking points |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 49% to break even | 17%–54% | 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 49% | 7.6kicking points |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 49% to break even | 12%–65% | 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 49% | 8.8kicking points |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 49% to break even | 24%–61% | 8 points shortwon 41%, needs 49% | 7.5kicking points |
| Every game | 9 of 2339%needs 49% to break even | 24%–56% | 10 points shortwon 39%, needs 49% | 7.9kicking points |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 11 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Kicking points in each game against under 6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Kicking points | Beat 6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 1 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 12 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 kicking pointsChase McLaughlin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -122at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even5 of 11 on the road | -13.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 field goals madeChase McLaughlin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even5 of 11 on the road | -12.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 extra points madeChase McLaughlin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -160at BetMGM | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 62% to break even9 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 extra points madeChase McLaughlin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at Fanatics | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 43% to break even2 of 11 on the road | -20.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 field goals madeChase McLaughlin · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +100at Fanatics | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 50% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.