This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 46% to break even | 27%–86% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 46% to break even | 27%–73% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 46% to break even | 28%–67% | evenwon 47%, needs 46% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 46% to break even | 22%–78% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 11 of 2055%needs 46% to break even | 37%–72% | 9 points betterwon 55%, needs 46% |
| Every game | 14 of 2654%needs 46% to break even | 38%–69% | 8 points betterwon 54%, needs 46% |
Tonight SEA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against KC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 44.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 44.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 36.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA -4.5 2nd half spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
| Oct 15 | 31 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 61 | +16.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 53 | +8.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 64 | +19.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 38 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 9 | 23 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Feb 8 | 42 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 58 | +13.5 | Won |
| Jan 17 | 47 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 3 | 16 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Dec 28 | 37 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | 75 | +30.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 34 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 46 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 26 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 54 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 40 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 66 | +21.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 52 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 20 | 46 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 32 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 73 | +28.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | 43 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 57 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 48 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 30 | -14.5 | Lost |
| 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 33% to break even |
| -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 44% to break even | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 48% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 50% to break even | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 55% to break even | -24.4Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 57% to break even | -26.5Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 62% to break even | -30.2Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, SEA gamesSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -172at Polymarket | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 63% to break even | -28.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 34% to break even |
| 8.1Strong |
| SEA +0.5 3rd quarter spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 67% to break even | 3.9Good |
| Over 24.5 team totalSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 42% to break even | 3.3Good |
| SEA -3.5 2nd half spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 41% to break even | 1.9Slight |
| SEA -2.5 2nd half spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 48% to break even | 1.7Slight |
| SEA -3.5 4th quarter spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 36% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| SEA -2.5 4th quarter spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | -3.2Not beating its price |
| SEA -1.5 4th quarter spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 45% to break even | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 2nd half totalSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 35% to break even | -4.9Not beating its price |
| SEA -0.5 4th quarter spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 48% to break even | -6.7Not beating its price |
| SEA -6.5 spreadSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +185at Polymarket | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 team totalSeattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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