This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 55% to break even | 54%–93% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 55% to break even | 52%–87% | 19 points betterwon 73%, needs 55% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 11 of 1765%needs 55% to break even | 45%–81% | 10 points betterwon 65%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 14 of 2264%needs 55% to break even | 46%–78% | 9 points betterwon 64%, needs 55% |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 43.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 43.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 28 | +15.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC +3.5 1st half spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
| Won |
| Oct 4 | 57 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 34 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 63 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 41 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 26 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 33 | +10.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 35 | +8.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 29 | +14.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 30 | +13.5 | Won |
| Nov 27 | 59 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 43 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | 41 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 49 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Oct 27 | 35 | +8.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 31 | +12.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 47 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 6 | 59 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | 57 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 31 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 14 | 37 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 48 | -4.5 | Lost |
| 8 of 17· last season47%needs 63% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -31.3Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -145at Polymarket | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.5Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.2Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | NV+102at Novig | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Over 43.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.4Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.1Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.2Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 game total, KC gamesKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 63% to break even |
| -1.8Not beating its price |
| KC +3.5 spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -145at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even | -5.8Not beating its price |
| KC -2.5 spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 40% to break even | -6.3Not beating its price |
| KC -3.5 2nd half spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 34% to break even | -7.2Not beating its price |
| KC +4.5 spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 61% to break even | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 team totalKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even | -8.3Not beating its price |
| KC -1.5 spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 42% to break even | -8.4Not beating its price |
| KC +2.5 2nd half spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 61% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 team totalKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 47% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| KC -2.5 4th quarter spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 40% to break even | -8.8Not beating its price |
| KC to win moneylineKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | PX+134at ProphetX | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 43% to break even | -8.8Not beating its price |
| KC +2.5 spreadKansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | NV+108at Novig | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 48% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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