This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 1100%needs 66% to break even | 27%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% | 1receptions |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1100%needs 66% to break even | 27%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% | 1receptions |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 1100%needs 66% to break even | 27%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% | 1receptions |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 66% to break even | 27%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% | 1receptions |
| Every game | 1 of 1100%needs 66% to break even | 27%–100% | 34 points betterwon 100%, needs 66% | 1receptions |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: SEA allows 9.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How SEA defends wide receivers
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsAndrew Armstrong · Today 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +159at Kalshi | – | Too few games |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsAndrew Armstrong · Today 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +189at Kalshi | – | Too few games | ||
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsAndrew Armstrong · Today 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +129at Kalshi | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsAndrew Armstrong · Today 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -161at Kalshi | – | Too few games | ||
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsAndrew Armstrong · Today 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -126at Kalshi | – | Too few games | ||
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsAndrew Armstrong · Today 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +101at Kalshi | – | Too few games |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.