This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 56.8total points |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 38% to break even | 13%–56% | 8 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% | 54.4total points |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 38% to break even | 13%–48% | 11 points shortwon 27%, needs 38% | 50.1total points |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 38% to break even | 10%–59% | 9 points shortwon 29%, needs 38% | 53.7total points |
| Last season | 2 of 1217%needs 38% to break even | 6%–40% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% | 41.4total points |
| Every game | 4 of 1921%needs 38% to break even | 10%–40% | 17 points shortwon 21%, needs 38% | 45.9total points |
Tonight NIU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UNLV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 10 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 59.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 24 | 77 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 64 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | AFA | 35 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 49 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 59 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 52 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 40 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 28 | 66 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 54 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 48 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 45 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 28 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 69 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 26 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 39 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 9 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 48 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 29 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 36 | -23.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 47.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 38% to break even4 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 50.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 46% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 51.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 48% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 52.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 52% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 53.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 52% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 54.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 56% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 55.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 60% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 56.5 game total, NIU gamesNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 62% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU to win moneylineNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +1241at Kalshi | 3 of 12· last season25%needs 7% to break even1 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -2.8Not beating its price | |
| NIU +21.5 spreadNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 48% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.7Not beating its price | |
| NIU +27.5 spreadNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 61% to break even7 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 16.5 team totalNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 44% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -7.9Not beating its price | ||
| NIU +23.5 spreadNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 team totalNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even3 of 10 on the road | -10.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 13.5 team totalNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 58% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -10.3Not beating its price | ||
| NIU +24.5 spreadNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 55% to break even5 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.2Not beating its price | |
| NIU +17.5 spreadNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 38% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 team totalNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 51% to break even4 of 10 on the road | -13.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 team totalNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 3 of 12· last season25%needs 34% to break even3 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 14.5 team totalNorthern Illinois · Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 6 of 12· last season50%needs 58% to break even6 of 10 on the road | Record is last season's | -29.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.