This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 9% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 9% to break even | 27%–86% | 51 points betterwon 60%, needs 9% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 9% to break even | 35%–81% | 51 points betterwon 60%, needs 9% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 9% to break even | 46%–83% | 58 points betterwon 67%, needs 9% |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 9% to break even | 41%–90% | 63 points betterwon 71%, needs 9% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 9% to break even | 39%–80% | 53 points betterwon 62%, needs 9% |
| Every game | 13 of 2065%needs 9% to break even | 47%–80% | 56 points betterwon 65%, needs 9% |
Tonight PITT plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against pitt to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
| -4 |
| -4 |
| Lost |
| Oct 2 | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Sep 26 | 59 | +59 | Won |
| Sep 17 | 14 | +14 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 5 | +5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 45 | +45 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | -31 | -31 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 14 | +14 | Won |
| Nov 15 | -22 | -22 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 15 | +15 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 19 | +19 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +3 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 41 | +41 | Won |
| Sep 27 | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 28 | +28 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 52 | +52 | Won |
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