This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 55% to break even | 5%–56% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 55% to break even | 13%–56% | 25 points shortwon 30%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 55% to break even | 17%–54% | 22 points shortwon 33%, needs 55% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 55% to break even | 4%–50% | 38 points shortwon 17%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 55% to break even | 26%–68% | 9 points shortwon 46%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 7 of 1937%needs 55% to break even | 21%–56% | 18 points shortwon 37%, needs 55% |
Tonight SMU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against CAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against smu 1q -6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat 6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35.5 team totalSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
| -4 |
| -10.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | -10 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | -7 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 14 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 2 | 14 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | -7 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | -3 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | -4 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -10 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 14 | +7.5 | Won |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 49% to break even |
| -0.4Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +162at Polymarket | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 38% to break even | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st quarter totalSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 45% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 55.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | NV-106at Novig | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Over 57.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | NV+100at Novig | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 50% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 37% to break even | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Under 57.5 game total, SMU gamesSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.6Not beating its price |
| SMU -24.5 spreadSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +162at Polymarket | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 38% to break even | -23.8Not beating its price |
| SMU -23.5 spreadSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
| SMU -21.5 spreadSMU Mustangs · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 4 of 13· last season31%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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