This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 49% to break even | 14%–73% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 49% to break even | 19%–65% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 49% to break even | 33%–72% | 4 points betterwon 53%, needs 49% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 49% to break even | 22%–78% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 49% to break even | 46%–85% | 20 points betterwon 69%, needs 49% |
| Every game | 12 of 1963%needs 49% to break even | 44%–79% | 14 points betterwon 63%, needs 49% |
Tonight CIN plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against TTU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against cin 1q +2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat -2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 7 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN to win moneylineCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET |
| -7 |
| -4.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 4 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 3 | +5.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 2 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 14 | +16.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 4 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 17 | +19.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 35 | +37.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Aug 28 | 3 | +5.5 | Won |
| 4 of 6· this season67%needs 21% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 6.9Good |
| CIN +4.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +185at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.5Good |
| CIN +6.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.2Good |
| CIN +5.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +177at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | 2.7Slight |
| CIN +7.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 43% to break even | Record is this season's | 0.7Slight |
| CIN +8.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -0.0Not beating its price |
| CIN +3.5 2nd quarter spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.0Not beating its price |
| CIN +10.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | NV+100at Novig | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| CIN +13.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.3Not beating its price |
| CIN +0.5 1st half spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
| CIN +14.5 spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -164at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| CIN +7.5 1st half spreadCincinnati Bearcats · Tomorrow 12:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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