This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 54% to break even | 44%–87% | 16 points betterwon 70%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 54% to break even | 52%–87% | 20 points betterwon 73%, needs 54% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 54% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 10 of 1283%needs 54% to break even | 60%–94% | 30 points betterwon 83%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 14 of 1878%needs 54% to break even | 59%–90% | 24 points betterwon 78%, needs 54% |
Tonight AUB plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against LSU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against aub 1q +1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat -1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -7 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 17 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | -10 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 7 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 7 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 7 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -7 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 14 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.