This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 44% to break even | 28%–67% | 2 points betterwon 47%, needs 44% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 44% to break even | 35%–88% | 22 points betterwon 67%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 4 of 1233%needs 44% to break even | 16%–57% | 11 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 8 of 1844%needs 44% to break even | 27%–63% | evenwon 44%, needs 44% |
Tonight SC plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TENN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against sc 1q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 13 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 20 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.