This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 44% to break even | 13%–56% | 14 points shortwon 30%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 44% to break even | 17%–54% | 11 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 44% to break even | 12%–65% | 11 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 44% to break even | 26%–68% | 2 points betterwon 46%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 8 of 1942%needs 44% to break even | 26%–61% | 2 points shortwon 42%, needs 44% |
Tonight GT plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against BC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against gt 1h -5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -21 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 21 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | -14 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 11 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -10 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | -14 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 0 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -7 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 17 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -14 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 22 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.