This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 42% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 42% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 42% to break even | 13%–48% | 15 points shortwon 27%, needs 42% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 42% to break even | 0%–73% | 42 points shortwon 0%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 4 of 1527%needs 42% to break even | 13%–48% | 15 points shortwon 27%, needs 42% |
| Every game |
Tonight WSH plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against TOR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 threesTrae Young · Today 7:10 PM ET |
| 12%–45% |
| 17 points shortwon 25%, needs 42% |
| 0 |
| -2.5 |
| Lost |
| Mar 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 5 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 26 | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 7 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 18 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 27 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| -175at Kalshi |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 64% to break even |
| -15.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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