This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 59% to break even | 35%–81% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 59% to break even | 46%–83% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 59% to break even | 0%–73% | 59 points shortwon 0%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 30 of 6447%needs 59% to break even | 37%–57% | 12 points shortwon 47%, needs 59% |
| Every game |
Tonight TOR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against WSH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 pointsCollin Murray-Boyles |
| 36%–56% |
| 13 points shortwon 46%, needs 59% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 3 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 22 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 19 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 20 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 1 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 19 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| +101at Kalshi |
| 34 of 64· last season53%needs 50% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -22.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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