This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 43% to break even | 27%–73% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 43% to break even | 33%–72% | 11 points betterwon 53%, needs 43% |
| This season | 17 of 3450%needs 43% to break even | 36%–64% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 15 of 4137%needs 43% to break even | 25%–49% | 6 points shortwon 37%, needs 43% |
| Every game |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Strikeouts (pitcher) in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Nick Martinez |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 13.5 outs recordedNick Martinez · |
| 32 of 7543%needs 43% to break even |
| 34%–52% |
| evenwon 43%, needs 43% |
| Date | Opponent | Strikeouts (pitcher) | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 18 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 31 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 20 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 14 | NL | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jul 10 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 17 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Oct 1 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 26 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 7 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| +140at Kalshi |
| 20 of 41· last season49%needs 42% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -27.2Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Nick Martinez · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 26 of 41· last season63%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 29 of 34· this season85%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -0.7Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 outs recordedNick Martinez · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 17 of 41· last season41%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -38.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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