This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 75% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 75% to break even | 65%–100% | 25 points betterwon 100%, needs 75% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 75% to break even | 65%–98% | 15 points betterwon 90%, needs 75% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 75% to break even | 59%–92% | 5 points betterwon 80%, needs 75% |
| This season | 114 of 16470%needs 75% to break even | 63%–75% | 5 points shortwon 70%, needs 75% |
| Last season | 102 of 15068%needs 75% to break even | 61%–74% | 7 points shortwon 68%, needs 75% |
| Every game |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Walks in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 walksYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 total basesYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET |
| 64%–73% |
| 6 points shortwon 69%, needs 75% |
| Date | Opponent | Walks | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 18 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 14 | NL | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jul 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| +253at DraftKings |
| 48 of 150· last season32%needs 28% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +398at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 20% to break even |
| 3.3Good |
| Over 0.5 runsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +162at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 38% to break even | 2.2Slight |
| Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +240at BetRivers | 66 of 164· this season40%needs 29% to break even | Record is this season's | 0.0Slight |
| Over 0.5 home runsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +1000at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 9% to break even | -0.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 home runsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +20000at BetRivers | 2 of 150· last season1%needs 0% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 total basesYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +160at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 38% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +105at Bovada | 86 of 150· last season57%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 stolen basesYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +1464at Kalshi | 3 of 150· last season2%needs 6% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 67% to break even | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 total basesYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | -205at Fanatics | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 67% to break even | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 RBIsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +280at BetRivers | 60 of 164· this season37%needs 26% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 hitsYandy Diaz · Today 8:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 50 of 164· this season30%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -24.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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