This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 71% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 71% to break even | 14%–73% | 31 points shortwon 40%, needs 71% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 71% to break even | 19%–65% | 31 points shortwon 40%, needs 71% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 71% to break even | 28%–67% | 24 points shortwon 47%, needs 71% |
| This season | 100 of 15664%needs 71% to break even | 58%–70% | 6 points shortwon 64%, needs 71% |
| Last season | 89 of 15956%needs 71% to break even | 49%–62% | 15 points shortwon 56%, needs 71% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Walks in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 walksWilliam Contreras |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 home runsWilliam Contreras |
| 55%–64% |
| 11 points shortwon 60%, needs 71% |
| Date | Opponent | Walks | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 10 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 17 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 14 | AL | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jul 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 14 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 10 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 26 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| +200at Fanatics |
| 70 of 159· last season44%needs 33% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -0.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +10000at BetRivers |
| 2 of 159· last season1%needs 1% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -0.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 home runsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +685at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 13% to break even | -2.8Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 stolen basesWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +2243at Kalshi | 6 of 159· last season4%needs 4% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.8Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 total basesWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | -190at Fanatics | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 66% to break even | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 total basesWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +331at Kalshi | 34 of 156· this season22%needs 23% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 total basesWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +155at Fanatics | 70 of 156· this season45%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 RBIsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +200at DraftKings | 57 of 156· this season37%needs 33% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hitsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +280at Fanatics | 46 of 156· this season29%needs 26% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | -200at Fanatics | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 67% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 85 of 156· this season54%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 58 of 159· last season36%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 runsWilliam Contreras · Today 8:00 PM ET | +150at FanDuel | 70 of 159· last season44%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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