This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 20% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 20% to break even | 5%–56% | evenwon 20%, needs 20% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 20% to break even | 2%–35% | 10 points shortwon 10%, needs 20% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 20% to break even | 8%–41% | evenwon 20%, needs 20% |
| This season | 16 of 11614%needs 20% to break even | 9%–20% | 7 points shortwon 14%, needs 20% |
| Last season | 1 of 205%needs 20% to break even | 1%–20% | 15 points shortwon 5%, needs 20% |
| Every game | 17 of 13613%needs 20% to break even | 9%–18% | 8 points shortwon 13%, needs 20% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Walks in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Walks | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Aug 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 walksJonny Deluca · Today 8:00 PM ET | -500at Fanatics | 19 of 20· last season95%needs 83% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.