This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 23% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 23% to break even | 27%–86% | 37 points betterwon 60%, needs 23% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 23% to break even | 27%–73% | 27 points betterwon 50%, needs 23% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 23% to break even | 22%–61% | 17 points betterwon 40%, needs 23% |
| This season | 38 of 13029%needs 23% to break even | 23%–36% | 6 points betterwon 29%, needs 23% |
| Last season | 4 of 1625%needs 23% to break even | 12%–45% | 2 points better |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total bases in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 total basesRichie Palacios |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 home runsRichie Palacios |
| Every game | 42 of 14629%needs 23% to break even | 23%–35% | 6 points betterwon 29%, needs 23% |
| Date | Opponent | Total bases | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 14 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 24 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 10 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 5 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 21 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 28 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| -139at BetOnline |
| 63 of 130· this season48%needs 58% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -34.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 total basesRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | -500at Bovada | 92 of 130· this season71%needs 83% to break even | Record is this season's | -42.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +40000at FanDuel |
| 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 0% to break even |
| -0.2Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 stolen basesRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +850at FanDuel | 4 of 16· last season25%needs 11% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.3Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 home runsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +1300at Bovada | 10 of 130· this season8%needs 7% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 RBIsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +380at FanDuel | 39 of 130· this season30%needs 21% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +220at FanDuel | 53 of 130· this season41%needs 31% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +106at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 49% to break even | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | -115at Bovada | 78 of 130· this season60%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 runsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +290at FanDuel | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 26% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 walksRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | +300at Fanatics | 39 of 130· this season30%needs 25% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 walksRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | -420at Caesars | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 81% to break even | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 runsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | -350at BetMGM | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 78% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 hits + runs + RBIsRichie Palacios · Today 8:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 52 of 130· this season40%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -31.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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