This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 51% to break even | 44%–95% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 51% to break even | 44%–87% | 19 points betterwon 70%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 51% to break even | 39%–78% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| This season | 61 of 11951%needs 51% to break even | 44%–59% | evenwon 51%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 24 of 7632%needs 51% to break even | 24%–41% | 20 points shortwon 32%, needs 51% |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total bases in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 total basesDavid Hamilton |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 home runsDavid Hamilton |
| Every game | 85 of 19544%needs 51% to break even | 38%–49% | 8 points shortwon 44%, needs 51% |
| Date | Opponent | Total bases | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 18 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 21 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 28 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 27 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -114at BetOnline |
| 52 of 76· last season68%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -25.2Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 total basesDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | -404at Kalshi | 64 of 76· last season84%needs 80% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +65000at BetRivers |
| 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 0% to break even |
| -0.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 home runsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | +1775at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 5% to break even | -2.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 runsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | +220at DraftKings | 42 of 119· this season35%needs 31% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 stolen basesDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | +368at DraftKings | 18 of 76· last season24%needs 21% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | +171at DraftKings | 43 of 119· this season36%needs 37% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 walksDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | -485at DraftKings | 65 of 76· last season86%needs 83% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | -135at BetMGM | 69 of 119· this season58%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 RBIsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | -450at BetMGM | 97 of 119· this season82%needs 82% to break even | Record is this season's | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 RBIsDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | +337at DraftKings | 22 of 119· this season18%needs 23% to break even | Record is this season's | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 walksDavid Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | +330at Caesars | 27 of 119· this season23%needs 23% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 strikeouts (batter)David Hamilton · Today 8:00 PM ET | -117at DraftKings | 65 of 119· this season55%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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