This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 55% to break even | 14%–73% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 55% to break even | 7%–46% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 55% to break even | 17%–54% | 22 points shortwon 33%, needs 55% |
| This season | 44 of 16427%needs 55% to break even | 22%–33% | 29 points shortwon 27%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 27 of 10725%needs 55% to break even | 19%–33% | 30 points shortwon 25%, needs 55% |
| Every game |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Strikeouts (batter) in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 home runsJonathan Aranda |
| 22%–31% |
| 29 points shortwon 26%, needs 55% |
| Date | Opponent | Strikeouts (batter) | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 23 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 27 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 15 | NL | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 13 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 15 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 21 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 14 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| +14000at BetRivers |
| 2 of 164· this season1%needs 1% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -0.6Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 RBIsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +332at DraftKings | 64 of 164· this season39%needs 23% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.0Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 stolen basesJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +2000at FanDuel | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 5% to break even | -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 total basesJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +229at Kalshi | 46 of 107· last season43%needs 30% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 home runsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +900at MyBookie | 21 of 164· this season13%needs 10% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 60 of 107· last season56%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hitsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | -121at BetRivers | 112 of 164· this season68%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 walksJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | -265at Caesars | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 73% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 runsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +195at FanDuel | 47 of 107· last season44%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 total basesJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | -130at Fanatics | 112 of 164· this season68%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 hits + runs + RBIsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | +140at BetOnline | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIsJonathan Aranda · Today 8:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 120 of 164· this season73%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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