This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 25% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 25% to break even | 27%–86% | 35 points betterwon 60%, needs 25% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 25% to break even | 27%–73% | 25 points betterwon 50%, needs 25% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 25% to break even | 39%–78% | 35 points betterwon 60%, needs 25% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 25% to break even | 29%–81% | 32 points betterwon 57%, needs 25% |
| Last season | 18 of 3453%needs 25% to break even | 39%–66% | 28 points betterwon 53%, needs 25% |
| Every game | 22 of 4154%needs 25% to break even | 41%–66% | 28 points betterwon 54%, needs 25% |
Tonight LILL plays on the road, as the underdog, against MON. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against lill to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | NAN | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | METZ | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | METZ | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | NAN | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.