This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 52% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 52% to break even | 33%–72% | 1 points betterwon 53%, needs 52% |
| This season | 7 of 1354%needs 52% to break even | 32%–74% | 2 points betterwon 54%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 24 of 4455%needs 52% to break even | 42%–66% | 2 points betterwon 55%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 31 of 5754%needs 52% to break even | 44%–65% | 2 points betterwon 54%, needs 52% |
Tonight CAZ plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against QRO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against caz -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | MAZ | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | MAZ | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 game total, CAZ gamesCruz Azul · Sun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 13· this season54%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 game total, CAZ gamesCruz Azul · Sun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 13· this season77%needs 61% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.3Not beating its price | |
| CAZ to win moneylineCruz Azul · Sun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET | -105at BetMGM | 24 of 44· last season55%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 game total, CAZ gamesCruz Azul · Sun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 20 of 44· last season45%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 game total, CAZ gamesCruz Azul · Sun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 32 of 44· last season73%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.