This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 40% to break even | 19%–65% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 40% to break even | 17%–54% | 7 points shortwon 33%, needs 40% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 40% to break even | 10%–59% | 11 points shortwon 29%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 14 of 3837%needs 40% to break even | 25%–50% | 3 points shortwon 37%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 16 of 4536%needs 40% to break even | 25%–48% | 4 points shortwon 36%, needs 40% |
Tonight NEW plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against CRY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, NEW gamesNewcastle United · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 team totalNewcastle United · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET |
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | WHU | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 10 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | WOL | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 7 | 7 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | BUR | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 26 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | BUR | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | WHU | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | WOL | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| 24 of 38· last season63%needs 62% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 game total, NEW gamesNewcastle United · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET | +149at Polymarket | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 21 of 38· last season55%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.5Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 team totalNewcastle United · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET | -109at Polymarket | 17 of 38· last season45%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| NEW to win moneylineNewcastle United · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET | LVG+138at LowVig | 14 of 38· last season37%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
| NEW 0 spreadNewcastle United · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET | LVG-136at LowVig | 14 of 31· last season45%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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