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EPLGame lineTotal
Manchester City @ Aston Villa: under 2.5
Won18 of 38last season · 47%
Best price+162Polymarket
Price needs38.2%wins to break even
Every game21 of 45this season and last
Trend score-15.0Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 38% to break even | 13%–56% | 8 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 38% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% |
| This season | 3 of 743%needs 38% to break even | 19%–71% | 5 points betterwon 43%, needs 38% |
| Last season | 18 of 3847%needs 38% to break even | 35%–60% | 9 points betterwon 47%, needs 38% |
| Every game | 21 of 4547%needs 38% to break even | 35%–59% | 8 points betterwon 47%, needs 38% |
Games like tonight
Tonight AVL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against MNC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Manchester City @ Aston Villa: under 2.52 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Total goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 |  NEW | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 10 |  BRE | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 |  TOT | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 |  NFO | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 |  HUL | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Aug 31 |  ARS | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Aug 23 |  BHA | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 |  MNC | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 15 |  LIV | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| May 10 | BUR | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 3 | TOT | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 25 |  FUL | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 19 |  SUN | 7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 | NFO | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 22 | WHU | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 15 |  MAN | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 4 |  CHE | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 27 | WOL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 21 |  LEE | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 | BHA | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 7 |  BOU | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 1 | BRE | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 25 | NEW | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 18 |  EVE | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 7 |  CRY | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 3 | NFO | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 30 | ARS | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | CHE | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | MAN | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | WHU | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | ARS | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 | BHA | 7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | WOL | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | LEE | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | BOU | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | LIV | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | MNC | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | TOT | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | BUR | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | FUL | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | SUN | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | EVE | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Aug 31 | CRY | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 23 | BRE | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Aug 16 | NEW | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET |  -191at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 66% to break even | -26.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | PIN-118at Pinnacle | 5 of 8· last 10 games, 2 skipped63%needs 54% to break even | -24.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET |  +137at Polymarket | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 42% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Aston Villa in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL to win moneylineAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET |  +425at BetUS | 19 of 38· last season50%needs 19% to break even | Record is last season's | 2.4Slight | |
| AVL +1.5 spreadAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -191at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 66% to break even | 1.0Slight | ||
| Over 1.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | +193at Polymarket | 17 of 38· last season45%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 0.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | +202at Polymarket | 3 of 7· this season43%needs 33% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 0.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -251at Kalshi | 28 of 38· last season74%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -245at Polymarket | 21 of 38· last season55%needs 71% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.