This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 19% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 19% to break even | 14%–73% | 21 points betterwon 40%, needs 19% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 19% to break even | 19%–65% | 21 points betterwon 40%, needs 19% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 19% to break even | 22%–61% | 21 points betterwon 40%, needs 19% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 19% to break even | 10%–59% | 10 points betterwon 29%, needs 19% |
| Last season | 19 of 3850%needs 19% to break even | 37%–63% | 31 points betterwon 50%, needs 19% |
| Every game | 21 of 4547%needs 19% to break even | 35%–59% | 28 points betterwon 47%, needs 19% |
Tonight AVL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against MNC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against avl to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL +1.5 spreadAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET |
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | BUR | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 3 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | WHU | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 15 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | WOL | -2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | WHU | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | WOL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | BUR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 66% to break even |
| 1.0Slight |
| Over 1.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | +193at Polymarket | 17 of 38· last season45%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | +162at Polymarket | 18 of 38· last season47%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | +202at Polymarket | 3 of 7· this season43%needs 33% to break even | Record is this season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 3 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | PIN+105at Pinnacle | 18 of 29· last season62%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | +137at Polymarket | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 42% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -154at Kalshi | 27 of 38· last season71%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -251at Kalshi | 28 of 38· last season74%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Over 3 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | PIN-118at Pinnacle | 5 of 8· last 10 games, 2 skipped63%needs 54% to break even | -24.6Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 game total, AVL gamesAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -191at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 66% to break even | -26.3Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 team totalAston Villa · Tomorrow 7:30 AM ET | -245at Polymarket | 21 of 38· last season55%needs 71% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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