This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 61% to break even | 14%–73% | 21 points shortwon 40%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 729%needs 61% to break even | 10%–59% | 32 points shortwon 29%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 729%needs 61% to break even | 10%–59% | 32 points shortwon 29%, needs 61% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 61% to break even | 10%–59% | 32 points shortwon 29%, needs 61% |
| Every game | 2 of 729%needs 61% to break even | 10%–59% | 32 points shortwon 29%, needs 61% |
Tonight COV plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against FUL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against cov +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.