This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 56% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% | 5.6total goals |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 56% to break even | 35%–81% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% | 6.1total goals |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 56% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points shortwon 47%, needs 56% | 5.7total goals |
| This season | 6 of 967%needs 56% to break even | 40%–86% | 10 points betterwon 67%, needs 56% | 6.3total goals |
| Last season | 43 of 8252%needs 56% to break even | 43%–61% | 4 points shortwon 52%, needs 56% | 5.7total goals |
| Every game | 49 of 9154%needs 56% to break even | 45%–62% | 2 points shortwon 54%, needs 56% | 5.8total goals |
Tonight CGY plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 23 of 46 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against over 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 1 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 16 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 11 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 16 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 10 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 11 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 8 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 20 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 6 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 game total, CGY gamesCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | +112at Polymarket | 39 of 82· last season48%needs 47% to break even23 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -20.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 6.5 game total, CGY gamesCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 53 of 82· last season65%needs 58% to break even33 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 team totalCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 43 of 82· last season52%needs 48% to break even21 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 1.5 1st period totalCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 7 of 9· this season78%needs 57% to break even19 of 46 at home | Record is this season's | -15.6Not beating its price | |
| CGY to win moneylineCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 34 of 82· last season41%needs 44% to break even25 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -21.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 1st period totalCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 47 of 82· last season57%needs 50% to break even27 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -26.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 3.5 team totalCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 21 of 82· last season26%needs 36% to break even14 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -27.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 team totalCalgary Flames · Today 10:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 39 of 82· last season48%needs 57% to break even25 of 46 at home | Record is last season's | -32.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.