This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 50% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 50% to break even | 19%–65% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 50% to break even | 22%–61% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| This season | 4 of 1040%needs 50% to break even | 19%–65% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 57 of 9560%needs 50% to break even | 52%–68% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 61 of 10558%needs 50% to break even | 50%–66% | 8 points betterwon 58%, needs 50% |
Tonight BUF plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against WSH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against buf to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 1 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 18 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| May 14 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| May 10 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| May 8 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| May 1 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 8 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 6 | +6 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Nov 6 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
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