This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | lost by 1.4goals |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 38% to break even | 13%–56% | 8 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% | lost by 1.8goals |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 38% to break even | 13%–48% | 11 points shortwon 27%, needs 38% | lost by 1.8goals |
| This season | 3 of 1030%needs 38% to break even | 13%–56% | 8 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% | lost by 1.8goals |
| Last season | 29 of 8235%needs 38% to break even | 27%–44% | 2 points shortwon 35%, needs 38% | lost by 0.8goals |
| Every game | 32 of 9235%needs 38% to break even | 27%–43% | 3 points shortwon 35%, needs 38% | lost by 0.9goals |
Tonight CHI plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against FLA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 47 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against CHI to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 1 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 15 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Dec 16 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 10 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | -6 | -6 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 1 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | 5 | +5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.