This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 70% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 70% to break even | 65%–100% | 30 points betterwon 100%, needs 70% | lost by 0.2goals |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 70% to break even | 65%–98% | 20 points betterwon 90%, needs 70% | lost by 0.3goals |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 70% to break even | 46%–83% | 3 points shortwon 67%, needs 70% | lost by 1.3goals |
| This season | 9 of 1090%needs 70% to break even | 65%–98% | 20 points betterwon 90%, needs 70% | lost by 0.3goals |
| Last season | 59 of 8272%needs 70% to break even | 63%–79% | 2 points betterwon 72%, needs 70% | lost by 0.4goals |
| Every game | 68 of 9274%needs 70% to break even | 66%–81% | 4 points betterwon 74%, needs 70% | lost by 0.3goals |
Tonight WPG plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against MTL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 35 of 46 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against WPG +1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 2 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 16 | -5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | -6 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | -5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 8 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 17 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | -4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | -2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | -3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 20 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | -1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.