This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 32% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 32% to break even | 27%–86% | 28 points betterwon 60%, needs 32% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 32% to break even | 35%–81% | 28 points betterwon 60%, needs 32% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 32% to break even | 39%–78% | 28 points betterwon 60%, needs 32% |
| This season | 6 of 1155%needs 32% to break even | 32%–76% | 23 points betterwon 55%, needs 32% |
| Last season | 38 of 10138%needs 32% to break even | 30%–46% | 6 points betterwon 38%, needs 32% |
| Every game | 44 of 11239%needs 32% to break even | 32%–47% | 8 points betterwon 39%, needs 32% |
Tonight CAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against EDM. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against car -1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 2 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jun 14 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 11 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 27 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 21 | -4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | -2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | -4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | -2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 8 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | -2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | -2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | -4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | -2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 17 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | -4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | -2 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | -1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 20 | -3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 14 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.