This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | 1 points betterwon 53%, needs 53% |
| This season | 7 of 1164%needs 53% to break even | 39%–82% | 11 points betterwon 64%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 44 of 8254%needs 53% to break even | 45%–62% | 1 points betterwon 54%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 51 of 9355%needs 53% to break even | 46%–63% | 2 points betterwon 55%, needs 53% |
Tonight VAN plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 16 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 pointsFilip Hronek · Today 10:10 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 38 of 82· last season46%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.