This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 44% to break even | 46%–85% | 25 points betterwon 69%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 12 of 1867%needs 44% to break even | 47%–82% | 23 points betterwon 67%, needs 44% |
Tonight LAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against LV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -159at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 61% to break even | -34.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 16.5 receiving yardsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 52% to break even | 5.4Good | ||
| Under 18.5 receiving yardsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even | 4.3Good | ||
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -120at BetRivers | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 55% to break even | 3.3Good | ||
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at BetRivers | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 53% to break even | -37.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 18.5 receiving yardsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 53% to break even | -37.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 16.5 receiving yardsKonata Mumpfield · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -116at DraftKings | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 54% to break even | -38.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.