This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 42% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 42% to break even | 13%–56% | 12 points shortwon 30%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1429%needs 42% to break even | 14%–51% | 13 points shortwon 29%, needs 42% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 42% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 2 of 922%needs 42% to break even | 8%–50% | 19 points shortwon 22%, needs 42% |
| Every game |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| 14%–51% |
| 13 points shortwon 29%, needs 42% |
| -2.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 10 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 6 | +0.5 | Won |
| +126at DraftKings |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even |
| -9.0Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 67% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -115at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 41% to break even | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 9 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped64%needs 67% to break even | -21.8Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.8Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 6 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped43%needs 52% to break even | -24.7Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 6 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped43%needs 53% to break even | -25.2Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 receiving yardsSam LaPorta · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 6 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped43%needs 53% to break even | -25.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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