This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 55% to break even | 35%–81% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 55% to break even | 39%–78% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 9 of 1656%needs 55% to break even | 36%–74% | 2 points betterwon 56%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 9 of 1656%needs 55% to break even | 36%–74% | 2 points betterwon 56%, needs 55% |
Tonight GB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsJosh Jacobs · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -105at DraftKings | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.