This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 44% to break even | 35%–88% | 23 points betterwon 67%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 5 of 1145%needs 44% to break even | 24%–68% |
Tonight GB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against yes, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson |
| Every game | 9 of 1753%needs 44% to break even | 34%–71% | 9 points betterwon 53%, needs 44% |
| 0 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| -154at Kalshi |
| 6 of 11· last season55%needs 61% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -30.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +152at Kalshi |
| 7 of 11· last season64%needs 40% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.3Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 11· last season64%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -118at DraftKings | 9 of 11· last season82%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Under 76.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 7 of 11· last season64%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 11· last season64%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 71.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at BetRivers | 7 of 11· last season64%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -191at Kalshi | 10 of 11· last season91%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -131at Kalshi | 7 of 11· last season64%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +146at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 50% to break even | -23.5Not beating its price |
| Over 76.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -111at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -25.7Not beating its price |
| Over 75.5 receiving yardsChristian Watson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -26.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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