This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 48% to break even | 35%–81% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 48% to break even | 33%–72% | 5 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 48% to break even | 50%–96% | 35 points betterwon 83%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 48% to break even | 19%–55% | 13 points shortwon 35%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 11 of 2348%needs 48% to break even | 32%–64% | evenwon 48%, needs 48% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against under 17.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 17.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 20 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 13 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 16 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 13 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 38 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 15 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 41 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 31 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 14 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 10 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 34 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 37 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 13 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 16 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 26 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | 13 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 26 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 23 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 36 | -18.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 17.5 1st half totalNew York Jets · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 1st half totalNew York Jets · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 20.5 1st half totalNew York Jets · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 21.5 1st half totalNew York Jets · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.