This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 5% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 5% to break even | 5%–56% | 15 points betterwon 20%, needs 5% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 5% to break even | 2%–35% | 5 points betterwon 10%, needs 5% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 5% to break even | 2%–25% | 2 points betterwon 7%, needs 5% |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 5% to break even | 8%–75% | 29 points betterwon 33%, needs 5% |
| Last season | 1 of 147%needs 5% to break even | 2%–27% | 2 points betterwon 7%, needs 5% |
| Every game | 2 of 1712%needs 5% to break even | 4%–30% | 7 points betterwon 12%, needs 5% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 10 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 0.8 touchdowns a game to tight ends, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Jeremy Ruckert game, newest first: whether Ruckert scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 3 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 17 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |