This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 4% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 4% to break even | 0%–35% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 60%needs 4% to break even | 0%–31% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 60%needs 4% to break even | 0%–31% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| This season | 0 of 40%needs 4% to break even | 0%–40% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| Last season | 0 of 20%needs 4% to break even | 0%–58% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| Every game | 0 of 60%needs 4% to break even | 0%–31% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: MIA allows 0.8 touchdowns a game to tight ends, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
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Every Jelani Woods game, newest first: whether Woods scored a touchdown.