This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 4% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 4% to break even | 0%–35% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 4% to break even | 2%–35% | 6 points betterwon 10%, needs 4% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 147%needs 4% to break even | 2%–27% | 3 points betterwon 7%, needs 4% |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 4% to break even | 0%–58% | 4 points shortwon 0%, needs 4% |
| Last season | 1 of 128%needs 4% to break even | 2%–30% | 4 points betterwon 8%, needs 4% |
| Every game | 1 of 147%needs 4% to break even | 2%–27% | 3 points betterwon 7%, needs 4% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 9 on the road. Tonight: NYJ allows 1 touchdowns a game to wide receivers, the 16th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9). How NYJ defends wide receivers
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Every Jalen Tolbert game, newest first: whether Tolbert scored a touchdown.