This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 13% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 13% to break even | 0%–35% | 13 points shortwon 0%, needs 13% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 13% to break even | 2%–35% | 3 points shortwon 10%, needs 13% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 13% to break even | 2%–25% | 7 points shortwon 7%, needs 13% |
| This season | 0 of 50%needs 13% to break even | 0%–35% | 13 points shortwon 0%, needs 13% |
| Last season | 1 of 166%needs 13% to break even | 1%–24% | 7 points shortwon 6%, needs 13% |
| Every game | 1 of 215%needs 13% to break even | 1%–19% | 9 points shortwon 5%, needs 13% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 11 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 1.6 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 3rd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends running backs
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Isaiah Davis game, newest first: whether Davis scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 17 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 14 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |