This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 2% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 2% to break even | 5%–56% | 18 points betterwon 20%, needs 2% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 2% to break even | 2%–35% | 8 points betterwon 10%, needs 2% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1315%needs 2% to break even | 5%–37% | 13 points betterwon 15%, needs 2% |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 2% to break even | 0%–58% | 2 points shortwon 0%, needs 2% |
| Last season | 2 of 1118%needs 2% to break even | 6%–43% | 16 points betterwon 18%, needs 2% |
| Every game | 2 of 1315%needs 2% to break even | 5%–37% | 13 points betterwon 15%, needs 2% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 7 at home. Tonight: MIA allows 1.6 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 3rd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends running backs
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Every Andrew Beck game, newest first: whether Beck scored a touchdown.