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NFLPlayer propReceptions
Kyle Pitts Sr. under 2.5 receptions
Won7 of 15last 15 games · 47%
Best price+166Kalshi
Price needs37.6%wins to break even
Every game7 of 23this season and last
Trend score-15.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 38% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 38% to break even | 28%–67% | 9 points betterwon 47%, needs 38% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 38% to break even | 22%–78% | 12 points betterwon 50%, needs 38% |
| Last season | 4 of 1724%needs 38% to break even | 11%–43% | 14 points shortwon 24%, needs 38% |
| Every game | 7 of 2330%needs 38% to break even | 17%–48% | 7 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% |
Games like tonight
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Kyle Pitts Sr. under 2.5 receptions1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  CHI | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  BAL | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  NO | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  GB | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CAR | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  PIT | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | NO | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  LAR | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  ARI | 7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  TB | 11 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  SEA | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 |  NYJ | 7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | NO | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | CAR | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  IND | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 |  NE | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 |  MIA | 9 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  SF | 7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  BUF | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  WSH | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | CAR | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  MIN | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | TB | 7 | -4.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Kyle Pitts Sr. in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsKyle Pitts Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  +119at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 46% to break even | -12.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsKyle Pitts Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsKyle Pitts Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsKyle Pitts Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.