This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 60% to break even | 27%–86% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 60% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 60% to break even | 33%–72% | 6 points shortwon 53%, needs 60% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 60% to break even | 18%–82% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 10 of 1856%needs 60% to break even | 37%–73% | 4 points shortwon 56%, needs 60% |
| Every game | 12 of 2255%needs 60% to break even | 38%–71% | 5 points shortwon 55%, needs 60% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsKyle Juszczyk · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 47% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.