This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 425%needs 49% to break even | 6%–64% | 24 points shortwon 25%, needs 49% | 27receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 425%needs 49% to break even | 6%–64% | 24 points shortwon 25%, needs 49% | 27receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 425%needs 49% to break even | 6%–64% | 24 points shortwon 25%, needs 49% | 27receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 49% to break even | 12%–88% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% | 41receiving yards |
| Last season | 0 of 2 |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: ATL allows 180.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 5th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How ATL defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 0%–58% |
| 49 points shortwon 0%, needs 49% |
| 13receiving yards |
| Every game | 1 of 425%needs 49% to break even | 6%–64% | 24 points shortwon 25%, needs 49% | 27receiving yards |
| 7 |
| -17.5 |
| Lost |
| +181at Kalshi |
| 1 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped25%needs 36% to break even |
| -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | +134at Kalshi | 1 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped25%needs 43% to break even | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | +105at Kalshi | 2 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped50%needs 49% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped50%needs 53% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 receiving yardsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | -116at DraftKings | 3 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped75%needs 54% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | -116at Kalshi | 3 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped75%needs 54% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | -168at Kalshi | 3 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped75%needs 63% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 3 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped75%needs 51% to break even |
| -6.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | +500at FanDuel | 0 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped0%needs 17% to break even | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsJordan Watkins · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETEvans out: next up at WR | -102at FanDuel | 1 of 4· last 5 games, 1 skipped25%needs 50% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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