This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 49% to break even | 14%–73% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 49% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 49% to break even | 22%–61% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 49% to break even | 12%–65% | 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 49% to break even | 15%–49% | 19 points shortwon 29%, needs 49% |
| Every game |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 69.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 17%–48% |
| 18 points shortwon 30%, needs 49% |
| 76 |
| +6.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 52 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 48 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 74 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 64 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 35 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 48 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 85 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 102 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 104 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 161 | +91.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 60 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 20 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 22 | -47.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 56 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 44 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 18 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 34 | -35.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 67 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 64 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 45 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 92 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 60 | -9.5 | Lost |
| +181at Kalshi |
| 7 of 17· last season41%needs 36% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Under 64.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetOnline | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 66.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 70.5 rushing yardsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -168at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even |
| -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 17· last season24%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.3Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 54% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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