This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 53% to break even | 22%–61% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 53% to break even | 19%–55% | 18 points shortwon 35%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 8 of 2335%needs 53% to break even | 21%–52% | 18 points shortwon 35%, needs 53% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 65.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 65.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 76 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 52 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 48 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 74 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 64 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 35 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 48 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 85 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 102 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 104 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 161 | +95.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 60 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 20 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 22 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 56 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 44 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 18 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 34 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 67 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 64 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 45 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 92 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 60 | -5.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 16.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 13.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 17· last season24%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsTony Pollard · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 54% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.